Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-India’s budget for FY14 (year starting 1 April 2013) was a bit disappointing relative to the market’s (and our own) expectations. Projected expenditure growth of 16.4% is higher than the average of the past five years (15.1%), while the subsidy bill (down 10%) is likely underestimated.
-Direct and indirect tax projections assume a strong pick-up in economic growth, while non-tax revenue appears ambitious. Hence, we see a high probability of slippage from the FY14 fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP unless capital expenditure is reined in (which, in turn, would be negative for medium-term growth).
-The budget also does not contain any measures to attract foreign capital flows to finance the widening current account deficit. Despite the market’s disappointment with the budget proposals, we believe further negative rating actions in 2013 are unlikely.